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I've dusted off this little satirical parable that I wrote in response to the The Garnaut Climate Change Review (2008).  It's not entirely fair but then satire never is.

 


 

 

In a parallel universe, in 1920† Sidney, the place where Sydney is in ours, had need of a harbour crossing.

An engineer, Dr Roadfield, was engaged to look at the practicalities; including the geology and geography and required property resumptions, in the context of contemporary technical options. 

After considering the options he reported that most advanced countries solve the harbour crossing problem with a bridge.  He proposed that they make the decision to have a bridge; call for tenders for an engineering design; raise the finance; and build it.  We'll call it the 'Sidney Harbour Bridge' he said; then less modestly: 'and the new crossing will be called the Roadfield Highway'. 

But there were dissenters, particularly in the newspapers and the Parliament.  Some said that bridges were inherently dangerous.  Hundreds of big bridges have collapsed worldwide and many thousands of lives have been lost (in our universe Wikipedia lists nearly 400 major bridge collapses occasioning the deaths of thousands; and it is estimated that worldwide tens of thousands of small bridges collapse every year).  Natural disasters often cause them to collapse, think what might happen in a tsunami, and they are vulnerable to attack by 'anarchists'. 

Some said that tunnels were better as they were less conspicuous and did not interfere with the natural beauty of the Harbour, but of course they too had their dangers.   Some said that they would never go into a 'Sidney Harbour Tunnel' as such a thing was evil incarnate. 

Others said they just didn't' like that arrogant Dr Roadfield and would do anything they could to stop any project proposed by him. 

They all argued 'up hill and down dale'.

Meanwhile a small but influential group, the Hair Shirt Party (HSP), had gained the balance of power in the Parliament.  They said that any bridge or a tunnel would only encourage more traffic and people should get a dinghy and row across.  All that was needed was more dinghy mooring facilities; separately marked 'dinghy channels'; and of course, the compulsory wearing of dinghy life jackets.

 

The compromise

An so an economist was engaged, much to the delight of Treasury Officials who recognised immediately that this was a person of logic and perspicacity.  A kindred spirit.  So they laboured together.  And in a year and a day they released the 'Guano Report' into 'water crossing methods and how to achieve them' subtitled simply: The Invisible Hand.

There was not an engineer or a scientist amongst them so they had no more than a general understanding of bridges or tunnels; or boats for that matter.   But their researches quickly revealed that there were lots of different kinds of each and many possible solutions.  How could they possibly choose; it's so complex!  So in the end the report failed to recommend any specific technology saying that The Invisible Hand would look after that.

They noted that crossing the harbour in the future was an externality for which the current generation was reluctant to pay.  The problem arose because of the water in the harbour.  But they did note that the problem would go away if all the water could be 'sequestered' by pumping it underground. Then the solution would be a walk in the Sidney Harbour Park, that once free of water could be planted out with trees, with maybe a remembrance fountain.

They explained that any attempt to 'pick winners' would result in a less than optimal solution.  There might be economy damaging mistakes.  Blame would be ascribed.  So they proposed to let the The Invisible Hand do the work.  The real men of action and finance were very smart and understood materials and 'finite element analysis'; much smarter than government economists. They would get it right. Treasury would not even have to finance it; instead they could tax it.

In summary: 'marketplace competition can be relied upon to sort the technical sheep from the technological goats', they concluded.

 


So this is what they recommended:

Henceforth persons using ferries to cross the harbour would need a 'water crossing coupon'. This would also apply at toll booths on any route around the harbour; like going around via Glodesville, Ride or Porromotta.  Monthly coupon books would be issued to everyone to cross the Harbour in any direction; southerners wanting to go North or vice versa.

People were encouraged to trade unwanted coupons amongst themselves and an exciting new market was established to facilitate this. People could hedge against coupon fluctuations and trade in coupon futures.  The number of coupons issued was capped relative to demand and then progressively lowered; making only limited concession to increasing population and economic activity. 

Although the government had succumbed to pressure to give some people extra passes and to allow others free passage,  trade in the coupons was generally brisk. 

Soon marginal coupons were selling at 'scalper' prices. As the traded coupon price reached £50 (this was pre-decimal) Macduff Bank and others calculated that they could charge say £10 toll if they built a crossing.  At that rate of return they projected that they could recover their investment and make a mega-profit within five years.

 

And so it came to pass...

A melee quickly ensued in which 'carpet baggers' began tumbling over themselves to build a wide variety of crossings.  The Government helped by pouring millions of pounds into 'alternative water crossing' research.  This had the additional benefit of quieting the technical sceptics; who quickly found that even the most way-out research project, or one going, yet again, over old, barren, ground, could get a very nice grant. Popular among these were towers with mirrors that, if stared into hard enough, gave the impression of having crossed the water.

But the most exciting of these concepts was the 'Sidney Harbour Skyway', which was held aloft by hot air balloons. 

As the 'money-men' knew little about engineering, and could not care less as long as their investors were eager, this imaginative and exciting project attracted by far the greatest support. 

Unfortunately as things advanced, one balloon burst and then another.  Soon the whole project collapsed in a heap.  A lot of retirees, encouraged to invest by 'independent' financial advisors (many of whom later turned out to be on secret commission) lost their life savings.  A mini-recession ensued.

So delighted was HSP at their success in stopping the project that they were reinspired.  All experimental crops were cut down, with maniacal screams of joy, using hand pushed lawn mowers; but anyone injuring a tree was pilloried the old fashioned way - in a wooden frame and pelted with organic produce; scientists using animals in their research were kidnapped and tortured to death; all dams were dynamited; the beef and other meat industries were shutdown; whaling ships were intercepted in international waters and sunk; and for a period dinghy sales rocketed. 

But a decade or so later, still with no practical solution in sight, Treasury, and their revered economist, had lost face.  A new Government, desperate for a real solution, employed some engineers who went knocking on Dr Roadfield's door and the old plans were dusted off. 

So there, in the parallel universe, is a 'Sidney Harbour Bridge' and a 'Sidney Harbour Tunnel' just like ours.

 

Sydney Harbour Bridge

 

 

They are very much like the other, occasionally hazardous, bridges and tunnels built around the world by practical engineers; to solve the common and well understood 'water crossing problem'.

And they all lived happily ever after...


The End

In this Universe the Bloomsbury Group and John Maynard Keynes existed a hundred year earlier; not long after Adam Smith and the Scottish Enlightenment.  Smith's and Keynes' radical thinking was inevitably followed by the post-Keynesian economic debates; leading to the modern economic synthesis with Monetarism by 1911. Thus their 'market driven' attempt to solve what is essentially an engineering problem; as some in our universe regard the provision of electricity and transport energy.

 

 

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Travel

Malaysia

 

 

In February 2011 we travelled to Malaysia.  I was surprised to see modern housing estates in substantial numbers during our first cab ride from the Airport to Kuala Lumpur.  It seemed more reminiscent of the United Arab Emirates than of the poorer Middle East or of other developing countries in SE Asia.  Our hotel was similarly well appointed.

 

Read more: Malaysia

Fiction, Recollections & News

Should we be worried?

 

 

 

"Yesterday, as I stood at my last stop on the campaign trail, I'll never be doing a rally again, can you believe it? I think we've done 900 rallies approximately from. Can you imagine? 900, 901 or something. A lot of rallies. And it was sad. Everybody was sad..."
"They said that many people have told me that God spared my life for a reason. And that reason was to save our country and to restore America to greatness. And now we are going to fulfill that mission together..."
"I will govern by a simple motto: Promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises. Nothing will stop me from keeping my word to you, the people. We will make America safe, strong, prosperous, powerful, and free again..."
"Success is going to bring us together and we are going to start by all putting America first.
"We have to put our country first for at least a period of time. We have to fix it. Because together we can truly make America great again for all Americans. So I want to just tell you what a great honor this is. I want to thank you. I will not let you down. America's future will be bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer and stronger than it has ever been before. God bless you and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you very much."

 

Presumably, 50-year-old volunteer fire chief; father of young daughters; and a committed church-going Christian: Corey Comperatore, lost his life as a part of God's plan, along with fellow rally goers: David Dutch and James Copenhaver, who also stopped bullets; Dutch critically.

 Nevertheless, Trump certainly loved his rallies. 

 The most talked about moment in the The Harris-Trump debate was when Harris mocked his rallies and Trump responded by asserting that Haitian immigrants in Springfield were eating the residents' pets. 

 

"At the ABC News presidential debate, former President Trump went on a tear accusing Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating pets."

 

 

This was the real Springfield, as opposed to the Simpsons' fictional one.  

  

This man is about to return as 'Leader of the Free World'.

Yet, he saw no warning signals before repeating the Springfield nonsense.  It reminded me of his suggestion, also picked up on Social Media, that Covid-19, might be overcome with household disinfectant.

 

President Trump claims injecting people with disinfectant could treat coronavirus

 

 

And his claim that the F-35 stealth fighter was actually invisible.

 

In a Thanksgiving speech to the US coast guard, President Donald Trump hails the F-35 fighter jet, calling it an "invisible" plane that they "enemy cannot see".

 

 

We already knew that his grasp of American, let alone World, history was woefully inadequate for someone holding, high office.  And this gets to the heart of the matter: he's an ignoramus.

I don't mean he's stupid but he's lacking in the most basic knowledge of how the world actually is. 

No doubt the occasional cat or dog does get eaten by a homeless person but ravenous immigrants, en masse, falling on the pets of Springfield?

The average twelve year old could tell him that this story is unlikely to be true. That same child could tell him that a stealth-jet is not actually invisible (to the naked eye); and that injecting disinfectant; or exposing yourself to radiation, sufficiently energetic to kill a virus infecting you, would very likely kill you too. 

But his ignorance is legendary:

 

Donald Trump often discusses history, and he has a unique way of talking about it.

 

Yet, on several cruises that we have been on with older Americans: "What do you think of Donald Trump" is a standard question at dinner. A few don't like him but for the great majority: 'The Don' can do no wrong. All the negative things said about him are just 'fake news'.  They are 'welded on' regardless.

Now this majority of Americans have got what they wished for - manifest destiny? As bob Dylan sang: With God on Our Side.

I'm worried.

 

 

 

Opinions and Philosophy

A new political dawn

 

 

The State election on 26th March saw a crushing political defeat for the Australian Labor Party in New South Wales. Both sides of politics are still coming to terms with the magnitude of this change.  On the Labor side internal recriminations seem to have spread beyond NSW.  The Coalition now seem to have an assured eight and probably twelve years, or more, to carry out their agenda.

On April 3, following the advice of the Executive Council, the Lieutenant-Governor of New South Wales, gave effect to an Order to restructure the NSW Public Service. Read more...

It remains to be seen how the restructured agencies will go about the business of rebuilding the State.

 

Read more: A new political dawn

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