Time to fix things
Some of the more dire outcomes of A Crude Awakening are further into the future than suggested and this provides time for technology and knowledge to provide solutions, something it often does very quickly.
If population is controlled and new technologies (like fusion and solar are developed) we may need to have no concerns for our children and grandchildren. They will certainly see a lot of changes but then so have we.
Change is the spice of life, and in economic terms, change equals consumption and consumption equals production and that is the measure of the economy. It is just that the means of providing the energy required will need to change.
Rather than destroying the economy, rebuilding a submerged or cyclone ravaged city or moving farming elsewhere stimulates economic activity. On one hand some people may be financially injured but on the other hand people will be financially advantaged elsewhere and a bit of wealth, and hence power, redistribution is stimulating in itself.
Possibly some cities may be inundated, and people will continue to be upset by cyclones or drought or flood, some people may have to move off the land or onto the land or from the suburbs into high density accommodation, some people may even have to change their holiday or trip to work habits but all of these are just elements in a world of change.
On a planet that is still geologically unstable, with a sun that varies in temperature and with planetary and galactic orbits that are not circular, and that as a consequence, is periodically visited by ice ages and temperatures much higher than at present, there can be no status quo, no lasting stability. When the same planet is suddenly inflicted with one species that for most of its existence has not exceeded half a billion but is suddenly heading for nine billion and rapidly destroying the natural balance in the process, change will happen no matter what we do about energy.
In conclusion, A Crude Awakening makes some very pertinent points. In particular the world is about to change and this change is unavoidable. But overall, the message of A Crude Awakening is just too bleak. The main weakness though is that it fails to make the most important point strongly enough – we must first contain, and then reduce, world population.
Footnotes:
[1] Source ABARE - http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/energy_dec06/htm/tables.htm
[2] ‘My work involved […] in winter time lighting the ‘kosi’ coke heater and trying to keep it alight, cleaning the ‘kosi’ out and putting the ash into a garden bed. In addition, when sufficient cream had been collected from the cows’ milk, I had to make the cream into butter and being allowed to only use a fork to whisk the cream. This work took hours to do and made your arm very sore.’ Senate Inquiry Into Children in Institutional Care Submission: Mr. Ralph Doughty
[3] Source ABARE - http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/energy_dec06/htm/tables.htm
