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The Pandemic

 

A year ago I commented on the COVID-19 pandemic and promised an update. So, here it is.

 

COVID-19 update (end February 2022)

 

COVID-19 restrictions are now being eased, in order to restore normal economic activity. Theatres, pubs, concerts, and schools are now free of social distancing limits and within days face-masks will also be optional.  

For a period, after that reported above, the virus spread to western Sydney causing extensive lock-downs. After a slow start, double vaccination rates soon exceeded 90% of the eligible population in our State and now many children are also vaccinated and about half the population has received a booster. 

Australia's borders have been quarantined and international travel curtailed but in June 2021 we were able to travel to Central Australia (see elsewhere on this website) and despite repeated outbreaks the principal impact at the height of the pandemic was the closure of many entertainment venues; the requirement, for many, to work-from-home and the, somewhat arduous, home-schooling of children. 

During 2021 I attended different hospitals on several occasions and on none of these seemed unusually overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. Elective surgery, that was interrupted for a period, is now restored, for example: for a friend who has recently undergone a hip replacement.

When the infection rate was low QR codes at all retailers and other venues enabled comprehensive contact-tracing. But a new more infectious variant (omicron) soon overwhelmed the tracing teams and has spread widely. Mainly thanks to vaccination, COVID-19 is no longer particularly deadly and Australian governments have followed the world trend towards accepting a small rise in deathrate as herd-immunity is achieved.  

 

Daily Covid deaths per million

 The continued higher daily death rates per million in the US and UK are due to wider spread of the virus, as a result of earlier mismanagement, and to lower rates of vaccination due to the activities of anti-vaxxers.

Thanks to intergovernmental cooperation and coordination, total Australian COVID-19 deaths, since the start of the pandemic, have been very low by international standards (just over five thousand have died to date).

Again thanks to ongoing vaccination (boosters), the daily rate is now declining, in spite of reduced restrictions (now a 7 day average of 43 per day, down from a peak of 86, Australia wide). About half these deaths are among the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

Deaths in Australia, from all causes, prior to the pandemic, averaged about 450 a day (164,000 pa). Many of these were in the same (at risk and elderly) cohort of people who are now being killed by, or are dying with, the virus.

Thus, so far, the virus has had very little impact on the overall Australian deathrate. The main impacts have been economic and social. 

In the absence of another more deadly variant, it appears that many countries, including Australia, are now approaching herd-immunity, enabling Australia to remove travel restrictions (quarantine) and open-up once more.

 

 

 

 

 

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Travel

India and Nepal

 

 

Introduction

 

In October 2012 we travelled to Nepal and South India. We had been to North India a couple of years ago and wanted to see more of this fascinating country; that will be the most populous country in the World within the next two decades. 

In many ways India is like a federation of several countries; so different is one region from another. For my commentary on our trip to Northern India in 2009 Read here...

For that matter Nepal could well be part of India as it differs less from some regions of India than do some actual regions of India. 

These regional differences range from climate and ethnicity to economic wellbeing and religious practice. Although poverty, resulting from inadequate education and over-population is commonplace throughout the sub-continent, it is much worse in some regions than in others.

Read more: India and Nepal

Fiction, Recollections & News

The Atomic Bomb according to ChatGPT

 

Introduction:

The other day, my regular interlocutors at our local shopping centre regaled me with a new question: "What is AI?" And that turned into a discussion about ChatGPT.

I had to confess that I'd never used it. So, I thought I would 'kill two birds with one stone' and ask ChatGPT, for material for an article for my website.

Since watching the movie Oppenheimer, reviewed elsewhere on this website, I've found myself, from time-to-time, musing about the development of the atomic bomb and it's profound impact on the modern world. 

Nuclear energy has provided a backdrop to my entire life. The first "atomic bombs" were dropped on Japan the month before I was born. Thus, the potential of nuclear energy was first revealed in an horrendous demonstration of mankind's greatest power since the harnessing of fire.

Very soon the atomic reactors, that had been necessary to accumulate sufficient plutonium for the first bombs, were adapted to peaceful use.  Yet, they forever carried the stigma of over a hundred thousand of innocent lives lost, many of them young children, at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The fear of world devastation followed, as the US and USSR faced-off with ever more powerful weapons of mass destruction.

The stigma and fear has been unfortunate, because, had we more enthusiastically embraced our new scientific knowledge and capabilities to harness this alternative to fire, the threat to the atmosphere now posed by an orgy of burning might have been mitigated.

Method:

So, for this article on the 'atomic bomb', I asked ChatGPT six questions about:

  1. The Manhattan Project; 
  2. Leo Szilard (the father of the nuclear chain reaction);
  3. Tube Alloys (the British bomb project);
  4. the Hanford site (plutonium production);
  5. uranium enrichment (diffusion and centrifugal); and
  6. the Soviet bomb project.

As ChatGPT takes around 20 seconds to write 1000 words and gives a remarkably different result each time, I asked it each question several times and chose selectively from the results.

This is what ChatGPT told me about 'the bomb':

Read more: The Atomic Bomb according to ChatGPT

Opinions and Philosophy

A new political dawn

 

 

The State election on 26th March saw a crushing political defeat for the Australian Labor Party in New South Wales. Both sides of politics are still coming to terms with the magnitude of this change.  On the Labor side internal recriminations seem to have spread beyond NSW.  The Coalition now seem to have an assured eight and probably twelve years, or more, to carry out their agenda.

On April 3, following the advice of the Executive Council, the Lieutenant-Governor of New South Wales, gave effect to an Order to restructure the NSW Public Service. Read more...

It remains to be seen how the restructured agencies will go about the business of rebuilding the State.

 

Read more: A new political dawn

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